Venice September 2014 |
One senior lawyer whom I used to work with passed away
last Thursday. At the wake, eulogies were made by his beloved wife, his youngest son, a
good friend and a young lawyer. His wife talked about how he never wanted a big car
or a big house and his material needs were modest. He was an avid tennis player
and that went beyond any doubt. I remember how he used to quip that he had spent more time on court than in
court. Apparently the conversations he used to hold with his youngest son were
invariably about how to manage money and invest well. His wife, a committed
Christian, told those present that towards his last couple years, he had spent
his days reading and understanding the Bible and he appeared at peace in his
final days. May Mr Lim rest in peace.
The Big Short is
about a few odd balls who were savvy and possessed the prescience about the flaws in the mad-cap finance world
and they were the smart hedge fund
guys who made colossal sums of money for their clients and themselves.It is apparent from the book that the financial system is riggable and trading is a form of gaming. The book exposes the folly of the system and tell how some of the insiders who work in banking industry had no clue about what was going on while it was going on. Lewis tells the story through the eyes of people who pay attention and who knew that a financial disaster was inevitable. These are smart people who knew how to make a lot of money with the system that is screwed up. But is it wrong for these smart people to game the system and ultimately made a fortune off what they foresaw was a financial disaster ? The amounts of money that these hedge fund guys were betting were mind-bogging. The idea of a credit default swap on what amounted to a timeless pool of subprime loans seemed delusional. Credit default swaps on subprime mortgage bonds were openly traded and standardized and in turn these bond traders could make money out of credit default swaps by betting massively that subprime loans would go bad. To defray and offset the running cost that were essentially hefty insurance premiums, the Wall Street bond traders sold triple A –rated subprime CDOs. The problem was what would happen if subprime mortgage borrowers begin to default in greater than expected numbers as even these so called triple A-rated subprime loans were actually bad ones.
The most
compelling character of all is Dr Michael Burry, a trained neurologist with
Asperger’s syndrome and one eye. Dr Burry had quitted the medical profession to
start Scion Capital, an investment firm. Burry made his money by making huge bets
against the Subprime Mortgage market. When his investors lost faith in his
strategy to short the housing market and began demanding their money back, Dr
Burry struggled to keep his fund alive in 2007 and early 2008.
The other compelling
character is Steve Eisman who hated being a corporate lawyer, he became an
equity analyst and quickly
established himself as one of
the few analysts whose opinions
might stir the market. Greg Lippmann , the Deutche Bank hedge fund trader and Howie Hubler a bond trader also saw the folly and fraud behind
the subprime mortgage industry. For nearly a decade, Howie Hubler had made money trading bonds for Morgan Stanley.
“It’s too much
to expect the people who run big Wall Street firms to speak plain English,
since so much of their livelihood depends on people believing that what they do
cannot be translated into plain English. What John Mack’s trying to say,
without coming right out and saying that no one else at Morgan Stanley had a
clue what risks Howie Hubler was running, is that no one else at Morgan Stanley
had a clue what risks Howie Hubler was running – and neither did Howie Hubler.
Another way to
put the same question: How could Howie Hubler’s bonds plunge from 100 to 7 and
the reports you received still suggest that they were incapable of dramatic
movement ?"
Michael Lewis has certainly tried to narrate the stories in a way that the lay readers
can understand, nonetheless I still have trouble figuring out the entire financial
system except that there are a lot of manipulations and inaccurate ratings.
From The Big Short, we learn
about how Wall Street has no qualms about stealing the trading strategies of
their clients and peddling them to other customers. We learn about how the
bankers hide the reality from ratings agencies and investors about the rising
default rate on subprime mortgages. We conclude that the entire financial system is a bubble and those interested go and figure. Meanwhile I cannot wait to get my hand on the copy of the Existentialist café that I have reserved with the local Kinokuniya bookstore. It is by Sarah Bakewell, the next non-fiction book that I plan to read.
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